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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 23d agoMLB
TB@KC
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Kansas City Royals · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
TB 6 - KC 4.5
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-120)
Home no-vig implied moved from 44.5% to 42.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.034) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.032) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- KC · neutral41% season win rate
- TB · neutral60% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- KCAvg 4.2 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)35-51
- TBAvg 4.6 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)49-33
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.86Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs