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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
COL@ATH
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Athletics Athletics · 3:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 6 - ATH 7.5
Sportsbook line
+166
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-105)
Home no-vig implied moved from 62.2% to 63.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.024) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral50% season win rate
- COL · cold37% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.4 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)35-35
- COLAvg 4.3 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)26-45
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.80Historical comp+0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs