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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
LAD@MIN
Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Minnesota Twins · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
LAD 5.3 - MIN 3.8
Sportsbook line
+151
Implied probability
38%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 44.5% to 38.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.10). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.022) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.103) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.10). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral48% season win rate
- LAD · hot63% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINAvg 4.9 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)38-42
- LADAvg 5.2 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)50-29
Historical trends
- [away] Net rating gap -1.93Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.64Historical comp-0.08
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs