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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 1d agoMLB
NYM@CIN
New York New York Mets at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 3.5 - CIN 5
Sportsbook line
+115
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-175)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.3% to 55.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.005) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.003) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral47% season win rate
- NYM · neutral45% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)33-37
- NYMAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)32-39
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.80Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs