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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
HOU@DET
Houston Houston Astros at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 1:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
HOU
Predicted final score
HOU 3.5 - DET 5
Sportsbook line
+115
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · HOU +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 55.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.042) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral43% season win rate
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)35-47
- HOUAvg 4.4 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)40-44
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.93Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs