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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 11h agoMLB
NYM@CIN
New York New York Mets at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
NYM 5.8 - CIN 4.3
Sportsbook line
+102
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.3% to 47.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.015) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.017) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral48% season win rate
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.3 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)34-37
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)32-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.62Historical comp-0.03
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs