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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
NYY@TOR
New York New York Yankees at Toronto Toronto Blue Jays · 3:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
TOR
Predicted final score
NYY 4.5 - TOR 3
Sportsbook line
+101
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TOR +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.7% to 48.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.022) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.030) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TOR · neutral49% season win rate
- NYY · hot60% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TORAvg 4.1 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)34-36
- NYYAvg 5.1 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)41-27
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.71Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Net rating gap -1.68Historical comp-0.04
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.97Historical comp-0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs