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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
SD@LAD
San Diego San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 7:20 PM ET
Predicted winner
SD
Predicted final score
SD 4.3 - LAD 5.8
Sportsbook line
+186
Implied probability
34%
from market price
Model probability
33%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SD +1.5 (-105)
Home no-vig implied moved from 66.6% to 66.1% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.030) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.011) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot66% season win rate
- SD · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)59-31
- SDAvg 3.9 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)43-45
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.91Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home PPG 5.3 vs avg 4.6Historical comp+0.01
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 1.45Historical comp+0.09
- [home] Net rating gap 2.36Historical comp+0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs