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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
SF@COL
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Colorado Colorado Rockies · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
SF 7 - COL 5.5
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-135)
Home no-vig implied moved from 46.3% to 46.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.006) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.003) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- COL · neutral40% season win rate
- SF · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- COLAvg 4.9 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)36-53
- SFAvg 4.0 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)36-51
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.91Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.81Historical comp+0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs