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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
TB@LAA
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels · 10:07 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
TB 4.8 - LAA 3.3
Sportsbook line
+102
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
47%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 48.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.042) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.012) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAA · cold40% season win rate
- TB · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)28-42
- TBAvg 4.5 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)40-26
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.66Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs