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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
ATL@PIT
Atlanta Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Steelers · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATL
Predicted final score
ATL 19.3 - PIT 22.3
Sportsbook line
+135
Implied probability
41%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATL +3 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.9% to 58.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.006) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.034) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
- ATL · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PITNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- ATLNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs