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FreshLine moved
Updated 39m agoMLB
NYM@CIN
New York New York Mets at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 12:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
NYM 5.3 - CIN 3.8
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-140)
Home no-vig implied moved from 44.5% to 45.2% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.020) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.032) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral49% season win rate
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.3 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)35-37
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)32-41
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.59Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs