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Yesterday
Updated 17d agoMLB
CHC@BAL
Chicago Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 6:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
BAL
Predicted final score
CHC 5.3 - BAL 3.8
Sportsbook line
-106
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BAL +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 49.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.017) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (0.000) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral46% season win rate
- CHC · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.6 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)42-49
- CHCAvg 5.1 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)50-40
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs