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FreshLine moved
Updated 30m agoMLB
SF@MIA
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Miami Miami Marlins · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
SF 4.8 - MIA 3.3
Sportsbook line
+118
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA +1.5 (-145)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.3% to 43.7% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.031) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.006) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIA · neutral50% season win rate
- SF · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.4 allowed (season)38-38
- SFAvg 4.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)31-44
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.47Historical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs