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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
MIA@STL
Miami Miami Marlins at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 8:15 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIA
Predicted final score
MIA 5 - STL 3.5
Sportsbook line
-108
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
51%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIA -1.5 (+150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 50.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.044) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 51% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral54% season win rate
- MIA · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)42-36
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)42-39
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs