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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
COL@LAD
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Los Angeles Dodgers · 10:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 3.5 - LAD 6
Sportsbook line
+250
Implied probability
27%
from market price
Model probability
25%
our estimate
Value gap
-2 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +2.5 (-120)
Home no-vig implied moved from 68.5% to 72.6% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.043) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.065) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- LAD · hot65% season win rate
- COL · neutral40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- LADAvg 5.3 scored · 3.6 allowed (season)60-32
- COLAvg 4.9 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)37-55
Historical trends
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 2.21Historical comp+0.10
- [home] Net rating gap 2.65Historical comp+0.07
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs