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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
COL@MIN
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Minnesota Twins · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 3.8 - MIN 5.3
Sportsbook line
+146
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
38%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-144)
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.3% to 60.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.011) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.025) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral46% season win rate
- COL · cold40% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINAvg 4.8 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)38-44
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)32-49
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs