Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 15d agoMLB
ATL@PIT
Atlanta Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates · 12:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
ATL 5.3 - PIT 3.8
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.5% to 48.9% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.012) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.007) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PIT · neutral51% season win rate
- ATL · neutral58% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PITAvg 5.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)47-46
- ATLAvg 4.9 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)53-38
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.94Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs