Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 2d agoMLB
DET@CLE
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Cleveland Guardians · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CLE
Predicted final score
DET 4.3 - CLE 2.8
Sportsbook line
-108
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CLE +1.5 (-195)
Home no-vig implied moved from 53.7% to 49.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.07). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.037) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.069) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.07). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CLE · neutral54% season win rate
- DET · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)39-33
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)29-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs