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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
TOR@SF
Toronto Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco San Francisco Giants · 9:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
TOR 4.8 - SF 3.3
Sportsbook line
+103
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 48.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.003) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.015) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
- TOR · neutral46% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SFAvg 4.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)38-52
- TORAvg 3.9 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)42-49
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs