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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
MIA@COL
Miami Miami Marlins at Colorado Colorado Rockies · 8:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
MIA 6.5 - COL 5
Sportsbook line
+125
Implied probability
42%
from market price
Model probability
41%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-120)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.7% to 42.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.019) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.025) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- COL · cold39% season win rate
- MIA · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)33-51
- MIAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)44-40
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs