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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
NYY@DET
New York New York Yankees at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
NYY 4.8 - DET 3.3
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 48.9% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.032) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.003) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral44% season win rate
- NYY · neutral60% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)34-44
- NYYAvg 5.1 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)46-31
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.47Historical comp-0.02
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -1.00Historical comp-0.06
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs