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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
MIL@ARI
Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
MIL 5.5 - ARI 4
Sportsbook line
+123
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-134)
Home no-vig implied moved from 43.7% to 42.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.020) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.016) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral49% season win rate
- MIL · hot63% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)43-44
- MILAvg 5.2 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)54-32
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.92Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Net rating gap -1.81Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.89Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs