Back to dashboard
YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
LAA@SEA
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 3 - SEA 4.5
Sportsbook line
+168
Implied probability
36%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-121)
Home no-vig implied moved from 64.6% to 64.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.008) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral49% season win rate
- LAA · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.0 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)42-43
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)36-49
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs