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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 32d agoMLB
ARI@STL
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 7:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 3.5 - STL 5
Sportsbook line
+126
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-167)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 57.5% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.007) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.018) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral55% season win rate
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.7 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)41-34
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)39-38
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs