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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 21d agoMLB
MIN@NYY
Minnesota Minnesota Twins at New York New York Yankees · 7:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
MIN 4.3 - NYY 5.8
Sportsbook line
+180
Implied probability
34%
from market price
Model probability
33%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-117)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.8% to 65.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.010) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.064) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.06). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYY · neutral56% season win rate
- MIN · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYYAvg 4.8 scored · 3.8 allowed (season)48-38
- MINAvg 4.9 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)42-46
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs