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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 30d agoMLB
ARI@STL
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis St. Louis Cardinals · 7:45 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 3.8 - STL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+102
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-200)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.4% to 51.6% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.012) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.013) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- STL · neutral55% season win rate
- ARI · neutral51% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- STLAvg 4.6 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)42-35
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)40-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs