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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 9h agoMLB
PIT@ATH
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
PIT 4.8 - ATH 6.3
Sportsbook line
+119
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-159)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.7% to 56.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.024) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ATH · neutral50% season win rate
- PIT · neutral49% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ATHAvg 4.6 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)36-36
- PITAvg 4.9 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)36-37
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs