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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 22d agoMLB
LAA@SEA
Los Angeles Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
LAA
Predicted final score
LAA 2.8 - SEA 4.3
Sportsbook line
+185
Implied probability
34%
from market price
Model probability
33%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · LAA +1.5 (-114)
Home no-vig implied moved from 65.2% to 66.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.012) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.016) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
- LAA · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.1 scored · 3.9 allowed (season)44-43
- LAAAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)36-51
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.07Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs