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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLB
NYM@PHI
New York New York Mets at Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
NYM 4 - PHI 5.5
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
46%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-194)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.3% to 53.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.027) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.013) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral55% season win rate
- NYM · neutral44% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHIAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)40-33
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)32-41
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs