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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
COL@MIN
Colorado Colorado Rockies at Minnesota Minnesota Twins · 2:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
COL 3.8 - MIN 5.3
Sportsbook line
+139
Implied probability
40%
from market price
Model probability
40%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-150)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.6% to 59.8% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.015) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.004) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral47% season win rate
- COL · cold39% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINAvg 4.9 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)39-44
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.7 allowed (season)32-50
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.50Historical comp+0.03
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs