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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 28d agoMLB
SEA@CLE
Seattle Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Cleveland Guardians · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
SEA
Predicted final score
SEA 3 - CLE 4.5
Sportsbook line
-109
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
50%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SEA +1.5 (-230)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.4% to 50.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.009) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.004) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CLE · neutral52% season win rate
- SEA · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)42-39
- SEAAvg 4.0 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)41-41
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs