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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 24d agoMLB
CIN@MIL
Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Milwaukee Brewers · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CIN
Predicted final score
CIN 3.8 - MIL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+145
Implied probability
39%
from market price
Model probability
38%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CIN +1.5 (-148)
Home no-vig implied moved from 60.7% to 61.3% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.030) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.031) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIL · hot62% season win rate
- CIN · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MILAvg 5.2 scored · 3.7 allowed (season)51-31
- CINAvg 4.3 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)39-44
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs