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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 19d agoMLB
PIT@WSH
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Washington Nationals · 1:00 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
PIT 4.3 - WSH 5.8
Sportsbook line
+129
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-155)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.3% to 57.4% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.001) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.050) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- WSH · neutral51% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- WSHAvg 5.3 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)46-44
- PITAvg 5.2 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)45-45
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs