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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 31d agoMLB
KC@TB
Kansas City Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
KC
Predicted final score
KC 3 - TB 4.5
Sportsbook line
+159
Implied probability
37%
from market price
Model probability
36%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · KC +1.5 (-130)
Home no-vig implied moved from 61.8% to 63.1% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.030) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.044) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.04). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- TB · neutral57% season win rate
- KC · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- TBAvg 4.4 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)43-32
- KCAvg 4.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)33-46
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.02
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.48Historical comp+0.02
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs