CLE@NYY
Home no-vig implied moved from 59.7% to 61.2% (toward home).
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Clutch Puppy Expert Summary
Take New York Yankees -1.5 (+119). The model prefers the home side (Model 60.7% vs Market 60.5%), leaving a small value gap (edge) of 0.2% and a high strength score of 82%. The pick is driven most by sharp agreement (sharp_agreement signal 0.067, contribution 0.013) even though the pure statistical_edge signal is slightly against the pick (signal -0.001).
The market opened -164/138 and is now -163/147; home no-vig implied moved from 59.7% to 60.5% (toward home). The current sportsbook line is -163 and the model vs market spread is Model 60.7% vs Market 60.5%, leaving a 0.2% value gap.
The home-side offensive profile shows an [home] Offensive PPG gap of 0.96 (strength 0.0574), which supports a modest scoring edge for the hosts and is consistent with the model's lean toward the home side.
Historical trends list an [home] Runs-allowed gap of 0.44 (strength 0.022), indicating the home defense/starting pitching profile has produced fewer runs allowed and contributes to the expected margin in favor of the home team.
[home] Home-field baseline is noted with strength 0.0101, a smaller but positive baseline adjustment that nudges the projection toward the home team and helps justify taking NYY -1.5 when combined with other edges.
The sharp_agreement layer has signal 0.067 (weight 0.2) and contribution 0.013, while the statistical_edge signal is -0.001 (weight 0.45) with contribution 0; the pick is effectively a bet that the sharp agreement and situational supports outweigh the slight negative statistical signal.
- Model win probability: 60.7%
- Market implied probability: 60.5%
- Value gap (edge): 0.2%
- Strength score: 82%
- Model win probability: 60.7%
- Market implied probability: 60.5%
- Value gap (edge): 0.2%
- Opened line: -164/138
- Current line: -163/147
- Home no-vig moved from 59.7% to 60.5%
- Strength score: 82%
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
No major injury notes detailed for this matchup.
Best bet — NYY -1.5 (+119) — backed by a model win probability of 60.7% vs a market implied 60.5% producing a 0.2% edge and an 82% strength score.
Total — No total play recommended given the edge is concentrated on the spread (value gap 0.2%).
The most realistic way this loses is via the statistical layer being right — statistical_edge signal is -0.001 (weight 0.45, direction: against pick), which is the largest-weighted layer and currently slightly favors the other side.
No reported injury impact.
The projected final score aligns with the historical offensive/defensive gaps on the home side — [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.96 and [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.44 — which together support a modest home scoring advantage.
The strength score of 82% reflects the model's confidence given a small value gap (edge) of 0.2% between Model 60.7% and Market 60.5%; higher strength here means the edge is concentrated and reinforced by sharp agreement.
The model expects a modest home win driven by the home offensive PPG gap (0.96) and runs-allowed gap (0.44) which together support the Yankees covering -1.5; final score projection: CLE null — NYY null.
Bottom line: bet NYY -1.5 at +119 if you can get that price or better; the model gives a 60.7% win probability versus a 60.5% market implied probability, producing a small but positive edge (0.2%).
Shop the price and target NYY -1.5 at +119 or better; juice is currently embedded in the -163 moneyline, while the ticket price of +119 on the spread is the explicit execution. If you can’t get +119, wait briefly — market has already moved toward the home side (home no-vig moved from 59.7% to 60.5%) so prices may tighten; avoid tying up capital in correlated parlays unless you can find better combined pricing.
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.001) — against pick
- situational edge (0.000) — supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.025) — supports pick
- market value (0.000) — supports pick
Counterargument
Variance is always in play.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
Recent form (last 10)
Historical trends
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.96
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.44
- [home] Home-field baseline