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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 9h agoMLB
BAL@SEA
Baltimore Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Seattle Mariners · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
BAL
Predicted final score
BAL 3 - SEA 4.5
Sportsbook line
+126
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
42%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · BAL +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 57.4% to 57.5% (toward home). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.008) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.021) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- SEA · neutral51% season win rate
- BAL · neutral47% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- SEAAvg 4.3 scored · 4.0 allowed (season)37-36
- BALAvg 4.7 scored · 5.2 allowed (season)34-39
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 1.16Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs