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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoMLB
CHW@DET
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 1:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 3.5 - DET 5
Sportsbook line
+122
Implied probability
44%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-165)
Home no-vig implied moved from 56.3% to 56.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.028) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.005) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral41% season win rate
- CHW · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)31-44
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)39-35
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.64Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Runs-allowed gap 0.52Historical comp+0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs