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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 16d agoMLB
CHC@BAL
Chicago Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Baltimore Orioles · 6:35 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHC
Predicted final score
CHC 4.3 - BAL 5.8
Sportsbook line
+112
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
45%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHC +1.5 (-170)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 54.8% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.024) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.053) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- BAL · neutral46% season win rate
- CHC · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- BALAvg 4.5 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)42-50
- CHCAvg 5.1 scored · 4.5 allowed (season)51-40
Historical trends
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -0.51Historical comp-0.03
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs