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Updated todayLine moved
Updated 1h agoMLBSlight Edge
CHW@DET
Chicago Chicago White Sox at Detroit Detroit Tigers · 6:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
CHW
Predicted final score
CHW 2.8 - DET 4.3
Sportsbook line
+110
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
+4 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Slight EdgeFinal recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · CHW +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 67.3% to 54.7% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 57% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.028) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.200) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 57% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- DET · neutral41% season win rate
- CHW · neutral53% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)30-44
- CHWAvg 4.7 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)38-34
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs