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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 1d agoMLB
DET@HOU
Detroit Detroit Tigers at Houston Houston Astros · 8:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
DET
Predicted final score
DET 5.3 - HOU 3.8
Sportsbook line
+102
Implied probability
47%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · DET -1.5 (+164)
Home no-vig implied moved from 54.3% to 52.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.013) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.028) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral45% season win rate
- DET · neutral41% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.6 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)33-40
- DETAvg 4.1 scored · 4.2 allowed (season)29-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.87Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.51Historical comp+0.03
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs