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FreshLine moved
Updated 26m agoMLB
PIT@COL
Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Colorado Rockies · 3:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
COL
Predicted final score
PIT 6.8 - COL 5.3
Sportsbook line
+120
Implied probability
43%
from market price
Model probability
43%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · COL +1.5 (-130)
Home no-vig implied moved from 44.5% to 43.4% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.017) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.018) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- COL · cold38% season win rate
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- COLAvg 4.6 scored · 5.8 allowed (season)29-47
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.9 allowed (season)38-38
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.89Historical comp-0.04
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs