Back to dashboard
Updated todayLine moved
Updated 2h agoNFL
WSH@PHI
Washington Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Philadelphia Eagles · 4:25 PM ET
Predicted winner
WSH
Predicted final score
WSH 21.3 - PHI 25.8
Sportsbook line
+180
Implied probability
35%
from market price
Model probability
35%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · WSH +4.5 (-110)
Home no-vig implied moved from 67.5% to 65.5% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.013) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.032) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 53% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PHI · neutral50% season win rate
- WSH · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PHINo recent stats ingested yetNo data
- WSHNo recent stats ingested yetNo data
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs