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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 20d agoMLB
TB@HOU
Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Houston Astros · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
TB
Predicted final score
TB 2.8 - HOU 4.3
Sportsbook line
+100
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · TB +1.5 (-225)
Home no-vig implied moved from 50.0% to 52.2% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.029) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.035) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- HOU · neutral48% season win rate
- TB · hot61% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- HOUAvg 4.5 scored · 5.0 allowed (season)43-47
- TBAvg 4.6 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)52-33
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.88Historical comp-0.04
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs