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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 25d agoMLB
SF@ARI
San Francisco San Francisco Giants at Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks · 9:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
SF
Predicted final score
SF 3.8 - ARI 5.3
Sportsbook line
+115
Implied probability
45%
from market price
Model probability
44%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · SF +1.5 (-182)
Home no-vig implied moved from 55.5% to 55.3% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.017) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.016) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- ARI · neutral49% season win rate
- SF · neutral42% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- ARIAvg 4.2 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)41-42
- SFAvg 4.1 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)35-48
Historical trends
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs