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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 4d agoMLB
ARI@CIN
Arizona Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds · 7:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
ARI
Predicted final score
ARI 4 - CIN 5.5
Sportsbook line
-105
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ARI +1.5 (-210)
Home no-vig implied moved from 49.1% to 51.1% (toward home).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.002) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (+0.032) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.03). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- CIN · neutral48% season win rate
- ARI · neutral50% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- CINAvg 4.3 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)32-35
- ARIAvg 4.3 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)34-34
Historical trends
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.47Historical comp-0.02
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs