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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 26d agoMLB
PHI@NYM
Philadelphia Philadelphia Phillies at New York New York Mets · 1:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
NYM
Predicted final score
PHI 5 - NYM 3.5
Sportsbook line
+139
Implied probability
40%
from market price
Model probability
39%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · NYM +1.5 (-125)
Home no-vig implied moved from 41.4% to 40.2% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.021) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.020) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: statistical edge signal is against this side (-0.02). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral41% season win rate
- PHI · neutral56% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.6 allowed (season)34-48
- PHIAvg 4.4 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)46-36
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs