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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 3d agoMLB
ATL@NYM
Atlanta Atlanta Braves at New York New York Mets · 4:10 PM ET
Predicted winner
ATL
Predicted final score
ATL 3.5 - NYM 5
Sportsbook line
-102
Implied probability
49%
from market price
Model probability
51%
our estimate
Value gap
+1 pts
model sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · ATL +1.5 (-205)
Home no-vig implied moved from 51.5% to 50.7% (toward away). Steam detected across 3+ books in last 30 min.
"Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.044) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.036) - supports pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: situational edge signal is thin (0.00). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- NYM · neutral45% season win rate
- ATL · hot65% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- NYMAvg 4.0 scored · 4.3 allowed (season)31-38
- ATLAvg 5.1 scored · 3.5 allowed (season)45-24
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -0.75Historical comp-0.04
- [away] Net rating gap -1.86Historical comp-0.05
- [away] Offensive PPG gap -1.10Historical comp-0.07
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs