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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 27d agoMLB
CIN@PIT
Cincinnati Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pirates · 4:05 PM ET
Predicted winner
PIT
Predicted final score
CIN 4.5 - PIT 3
Sportsbook line
-103
Implied probability
48%
from market price
Model probability
48%
our estimate
Value gap
0 pts
market in line
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · PIT +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 48.5% to 48.1% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (+0.012) - supports pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.006) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.01). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- PIT · neutral50% season win rate
- CIN · neutral48% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- PITAvg 5.0 scored · 4.7 allowed (season)41-41
- CINAvg 4.2 scored · 4.8 allowed (season)38-42
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.82Historical comp+0.05
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs