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YesterdayLine moved
Updated 17d agoMLB
CLE@MIN
Cleveland Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Minnesota Twins · 7:40 PM ET
Predicted winner
MIN
Predicted final score
CLE 5 - MIN 3.5
Sportsbook line
-109
Implied probability
50%
from market price
Model probability
49%
our estimate
Value gap
-1 pts
market sees more value
Confidence
Final recommendation
Pass0.25u
Model pick · MIN +1.5 (-180)
Home no-vig implied moved from 52.9% to 49.8% (toward away).
"Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read."
Top supporting factors
- statistical edge (-0.003) - against pick
- situational edge (0.000) - supports pick
- sharp agreement (-0.049) - against pick
- market value (0.000) - supports pick
Counterargument
Biggest risk: sharp agreement signal is against this side (-0.05). Variance and late line moves can flip a 52% read.
Injury impact
No reported impact.
Team status
- MIN · neutral48% season win rate
- CLE · neutral52% season win rate
Recent form (last 10)
- MINAvg 4.9 scored · 5.1 allowed (season)44-47
- CLEAvg 4.0 scored · 4.1 allowed (season)47-44
Historical trends
- [home] Home-field baselineHistorical comp+0.01
- [away] Runs-allowed gap -1.03Historical comp-0.05
- [home] Offensive PPG gap 0.95Historical comp+0.06
Line movement
Model vs market
Modelvs
Marketvs